Enrollment and School Capacity

By Amy K. Koo

There are three critical components that need to be addressed when talking about the school capacity issue. 1) What matters most to the community? 2) How can we predict future enrollment? and 3) What is the best balance of permanent vs. temporary capacity expansion?

My thoughts on enrollment and capacity are simply that - my thoughts. I intend to share my thoughts, but the EFTF will recommend the best path forward, and the school board will approve (or not) the path forward. Should I be elected to the school board, I will make sure no stone is left unturned on the capacity issue, leveraging the 10+ years of experience I have in balancing supply and demand for high tech and pharmaceutical companies, and will ensure that community input is an integral part of the decision making process.

I believe there are three critical components that need to be addressed when talking about the capacity issue. 1) What matters most to the community? 2) How can we predict future enrollment? and 3) What is the best balance of permanent vs. temporary capacity expansion?

What Matters Most to the Community

Neighborhood schools matter. Top quality education that is customized to meet the needs of individual children matter. School assignment policies that are fair matter. Ensuring that students remain eligible to attend district schools matter. Above all, parents want to be informed so they can make the best decisions on behalf of their child. Taxpayers want to know that their money is being spent wisely. The size of the school - not as much of a priority as long as the quality of education can be maintained.

The school assignment policy is not within the scope of the EFTF. And if we are able to find solutions that can create enough capacity where the demand is located, then the no boundaries algorithm can work as intended - to keep kids at neighborhood schools. The problem with no boundaries is that when capacity is not aligned with neighborhood demand, then the same geographic areas are impacted year after year thus creating a flexible boundary. Because the algorithm is distance based and prioritizes early enrollment, it allows those with the means (financial and knowledge) to purchase or rent homes close to the desired school at the right time (prior to Phase 1 enrollment) to ensure access. Once a student enrolls in the desired school, the family is free to move anywhere in the district and still stay at the same school, potentially preventing those from the neighborhood from being able to attend the school. The policy gives the school board a lot of power in determining attendance caps at each school that can be independent of the true capacity of each school. If the school board acts according to community priorities, then the policy works, if the school board has its own agenda, then decisions can be misaligned with community preferences. The school assignment is not something we can change this year as we are too close to registration for 2014-2015 school year, but I think it needs to be re-addressed in the future. Back in 2011, the Alternatives Committee had recommended a lottery in those cases where enrollment exceeded capacity at a neighborhood school. I believe that is a more fair approach, an approach more commonly used in other districts, and an approach that is more difficult to game as everyone in that neighborhood is equally at risk.

How Can We Predict Future Enrollment?

The EFTF's first task is to select a new demographer, as everyone has lost confidence in the previous demographer. However, there is more that can be done than simply relying on the demographer. In recent years, the district registration forms have included a request for younger sibling information. In 2013-2014, siblings consumed half of the available Kindergarten seats. Sibling data is something that is reliable down to the school level; there's not a ton of guesswork as long as district families are willing to answer a district survey about younger siblings, and this solid forecast can look out up to 5 years in the future assuming families first enter the district when their first child is 5. A small percentage of families may leave the district, but there should be historical data to support an assumption that can be used to adjust the sibling forecast.

We can supplement the demographer's report with census data and feedback from local real estate agents on neighborhood resale patterns. Certain neighborhoods are already saturated with young families, others have mostly high school / college age families, and yet others are primarily senior citizens. The enrollment ebbs and flows and the influx of new families often depends on whether seniors are cashing out on their homes. Those neighborhoods with high numbers of seniors are likely to show future enrollment growth. Those with high numbers of middle school - college age families are areas that are likely to show future enrollment decline. Lastly, we can't forget about the Tinsley transfers, and we should make estimates on whether the Tinsley enrollment is increasing or decreasing by class year. Based on data from BRSSD, attrition is very high for Tinsley transfers and that should be accounted for in the forecast. Forecasting and planning has to be done neighborhood by neighborhood - we can't roll everything up to the district level as that won't give us the information we need to add capacity where it's needed.

Predicting the future is more straightforward when we can separate out what is fixed demand and what is variable demand. When we can do some parallel research in conjunction with the demographer, then we will also be better equipped to ask the demographer tough questions to ensure their forecast is accurate.

What is the Best Balance Between Permanent Capacity Expansion vs. Temporary Capacity Expansion?

Enrollment numbers do ebb and flow. However, the median enrollment numbers will grow over time as new housing developments come on the market. Therefore, we cannot say that enrollment will just go back to what it was in the 80s when schools were getting closed. Since then Redwood Shores has been fully developed, and when Redwood Shores Elementary was built, a new housing development, the Preserves, was built right next to it. The district's baseline enrollment numbers have increased and the question becomes what is the new normal? There is no more land left to develop, so we will be able to come up with the new normal over time.

Physical school capacity should be sufficient to handle this new normal, and that is where I think the middle school capacity is lacking. Six elementary schools feeding into one middle school is a huge number. Keep in mind as well that some of the children who attend private elementary schools are planning to return to public school for middle school as there are few private middle school options in the district. I believe one of the long term options should include building out a second middle school perhaps closer to Redwood Shores. Having a middle school that could serve Nesbit and the two Redwood Shores schools could not only alleviate the overcrowding at Ralston, but also help reduce traffic congestion going up the Ralston corridor and reduce the commute time for the kids. Certainly the big unknown is where to locate another middle school campus and how to come up with the funds. Perhaps a charter school would allow a campus to be built without the traditional land requirements for a middle school. As a community we can provide our ideas to the EFTF - if the need is there, then there will be a way to make it happen if everyone is aligned on the need.

Temporary Facility Expansion is key if we want to stay away from opening and closing schools. Given the physical footprint is sufficient to support our new normal, then in those years when there is an enrollment bubble, we have to be willing to use creative scheduling to get around the bubble.

Some ideas are as follows:

• AM/PM Kindergartens - this has been done before and can cut Kindergarten classrooms needs in half
• Year Round Schools - rotate summer vacation throughout the year, thus splitting students into 3 cohorts and keeping the schools utilized year round. Some families would welcome being able to take family trips in the offseason!
• Prioritize classroom space - take back rooms that are used for purposes other than to teach a full class of kids (e.g. after school care, dedicated music or science rooms)
• Add portables or partner with other organizations to house certain programs (such as those pushed out of classroom space)
• Early / Late schedules - spread out the students by having some attend 7a - 2p and others attend 9a - 4p. This may work better at the middle school level as students move from classroom to classroom vs. have a dedicated classroom. The overlap time can include lunch, PE, and electives thus spreading out required classes throughout the day. Depending on each family's situation and the student's before or after school commitments, the student can request to have the early or late schedule.
• Support families who want to home school. There are state wide as well as local public home school options, and the district can partner with these entities and help families find ways to customize their child's education and still stay connected to their neighborhood.